El Nino is likely to displace 651,000 children 5-17 years of age, of whom 225,000 are in school in the affected districts, according to projections from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
UNICEF said the impact of the floods on the education sector will include the displacement of children and teachers, damage to school infrastructure such as classroom blocks, water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities, disruptions to teaching and learning, and blockage of the road network, among others.
“With the anticipated displacement and damages, there is a high possibility of extended school closures, which will lead to increased school dropouts,” it said in its latest update on El Nino, released Wednesday evening in the Somali capital of Mogadishu.
It said the current El Nino situation, coupled with an expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is likely to result in above-average rainfall during the upcoming second rainy season, which falls in the October-December period. “The projection has more than a 90 per cent certainty, necessitating mitigation, preparedness, and early action. El Nino and a positive IOD are likely to cause riverine and flash floods, resulting in loss of lives, property damage, population displacement, and destruction of infrastructure and crops in the field,” it said.
UNICEF also noted that the damage to infrastructure and water and sanitation facilities within schools is expected to worsen the spread of waterborne diseases, including cholera, which has been prevalent in some of the flood-affected districts.
The latest update comes as the UN reported a significant increase in river water levels in parts of Hirshabelle State in central Somalia ahead of the anticipated El Nino. The UN called on communities residing in low-lying areas, especially along the Shabelle River, to remain vigilant and relocate to safe areas in case of flooding. The world body has warned that up to 1.2 million people could be affected, and 1.5 million hectares of land are at high risk of inundation.
Somalia is experiencing one of the world’s worst hunger crises after its worst drought in four decades, with the UN warning that food insecurity is far from over and is becoming more severe daily.
According to the UN, about 4.3 million people in Somalia will face hunger between October and December and require urgent assistance due to El Nino, conflict, and other factors. UNICEF warned that the impact of the floods is estimated to last for decades in the absence of appropriate intervention.
